Global Economic and Geopolitical Instability Intensifies Amidst Protracted Iran Conflict

Key Intelligence

• ■The protracted Iran conflict is fueling global economic instability, driving oil prices towards $120, exacerbating inflation fears, and increasing the risk of recession in major economies like the UK and India, alongside supply chain disruptions for industries such as automotive.
• ■The US maintains a naval blockade and warns of sanctions against Chinese refiners of Iranian oil, while preparing for a potential lengthy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying pressure on Iran.
• ■Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with Iran reportedly ready to access its uranium stockpile and a surge in piracy off Somalia's coast linked to the conflict.
• ■International bodies are responding to the economic fallout, with the EU relaxing state-aid rules and central banks, like Thailand's, holding key rates to counter oil shock threats to growth.
• ■The conflict has triggered billions in disputes among oil traders due to Hormuz disruptions and appears to be shifting regional alliances, with the UAE's relationship with Saudi Arabia seeing changes.