Global Markets and Geopolitical Shifts: Key Developments Impacting 2026 Outlook

Key Intelligence

• ■US politics are in focus with former President Trump's actions on the UN, defense spending, and engagement with Venezuela's oil sector, alongside Governor Newsom's pushback against criticism of California. A US Supreme Court tariff ruling is also pending.
• ■Global bond markets are highly active, with record sales and significant US blue-chip issuance, while Philippine bonds show promise for 2026. However, UK house prices tumbled, and the S&P 500 retreated, though defense stocks soared.
• ■Economic indicators show US productivity picked up with declining labor costs, and financial experts predict a US consumer-led equity rally in 2026.
• ■Geopolitically, Germany and India are close to an $8 billion submarine deal, while Iran experiences internet collapse amid protests over an economic crisis.
• ■An Australian state faces 'catastrophic' fire risk from a heatwave.